Clay Shirky, on the collapse of complex business models:
“In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Tainter looked at several societies that gradually arrived at a level of remarkable sophistication then suddenly collapsed: the Romans, the Lowlands Maya, the inhabitants of Chaco canyon. Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness.
Tainter asked himself whether there was some explanation common to these sudden dissolutions. The answer he arrived at was that they hadn’t collapsed despite their cultural sophistication, they’d collapsed because of it. Subject to violent compression, Tainter’s story goes like this: a group of people, through a combination of social organization and environmental luck, finds itself with a surplus of resources.
Managing this surplus makes society more complex—agriculture rewards mathematical skill, granaries require new forms of construction, and so on. Early on, the marginal value of this complexity is positive—each additional bit of complexity more than pays for itself in improved output—but over time, the law of diminishing returns reduces the marginal value, until it disappears completely. At this point, any additional complexity is pure cost.” (via bunch)
falls from grace,
by Maya Stein
because of the noise she makes in the morning
because of her insistence on closed shutters
because of the way she hesitates before a map
because of the indelicate way she drives
because of her need to be held and touched
long after the argument is over
because of her breezy handling of conflict
because of her conservative approach to a dinner menu
because of her wild swings between hunger and overindulgence
because of the faultlines of her boundaries
because of her unwillingness to bend toward weakness
because of her unawareness of her own body,
her clumsy negotiation of a sidewalk, a bedroom, a door
because of her easy criticisms, her punishing eye,
her self-diminishment
because together they could not always line up the story
they’d begun with, a cozy scene of sexy familiarity
and a smooth stretch of time when there was nothing to do
but lap up their beauty, their stunning possibility
because together they were not as they had once thought,
a pair of puzzle pieces locking swiftly into place
because they were fragile and imperfect and foolish creatures
all of them, destined for certain doom and disaster
they were now, and would forever be, taking these falls from grace,
tumbling from the heavens each time they managed to climb back up,
into a clammy, crumbly earth below where, unbeknownst to them,
something was stubbornly, and beyond reason,
taking root. (via one paragraph at a time)
by Maya Stein, 10-line Tuesday
These are the usual complaints: money, the future, the body and its creaking inadequacies, how to deal with the spin cycle of work or art or love or the unshakable desire to be of better use. One could stay, battling the assault of Will I ever be good enough or the thousandth rendition of What if I can’t, but Time will not stay idle while the weights and measures are calculated. This morning, two breadcrumbs felled by errant hands gathered, in an instant, a score of pigeons. These treasures were not mulled over, analyzed or probed for their worth. One bird, without delay, consumed the scraps in full. The others, ignoring their defeat, simply flew away.
how to climb a mountain, by Maya Stein
Make no mistake. This will be an exercise in staying vertical.
Yes, there will be a view, later, a wide swath of open sky,
but in the meantime: tree and stone. If you’re lucky, a hawk will
coast overhead, scanning the forest floor. If you’re lucky,
a set of wildflowers will keep you cheerful. Mostly, though,
a steady sweat, your heart fluttering indelicately, a solid ache
perforating your calves. This is called work, what you will come to know, / eventually and simply, as movement, as all the evidence you need to make /your way. Forget where you were. That story is no longer true. / Level your gaze to the trail you’re on, and even the dark won’t stop you.